Marcus Cake

The recent controversy nicknamed Climategate is a catalysing event on the critical path to Web 4.0. It highlights how a traditional scientific research channel to determine the “truth” was completely compromised and, literally, invented global warming. The world could spend US$45 trillion on global warming. The UK may spend 18 billions pounds per year for the next ten years. The result was (or is) a staggering misallocation of global resources to deal with a problem that may not exist.

A few days ago, the open source browser project Opera released the version 10 of its web browser. This version, called Opera Unite, introduces a major new function that will probably be incorporated into all browsers. Opera Unite extends the browser that reads web pages from the internet, with a web server that publishes information to the web. In short, it facilitates direct peer to peer (or browser to browser) communication between browsers in real-time. Google Wave and Opera Unite facilitate peer to peer in Web 3.0. They do it in different ways. Google Wave appears to have a a superior value proposition, but ultimately it will depend on how, and how many, third party applications are integrated into each platform.

Email was created 40 years ago and provides specific means for people to communicate. It mimics the conventional postal service. Wave is Google’s attempt at how we should communicate given technology today. It provides a new means and a new workflow to communicate. Google Wave may be a masterful strategic move by Google that integrates a range of their online technologies and triggers a paradigm shift. The impact of Google Wave is revolutionary. It could render desktop office productivity software obsolete as workflow and content is managed online. It could also render existing open source and commercial email servers obsolete. Corporates will bypass much of the Web 2.0 point applications and implement Google Wave for an immediate productivity improvement.

I.O.U.S.A. is a Web 2.0 online political network created by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation asking citizens to “encourage” the US government to move beyond Web 1.0 government opportunism and implement a Web 3.0 government that pursues sustainable, solvent and fully funded policies.

I was in Canberra today to participated in the strategic review of a mobile payments company.

A friend provided an introduction to Dr Jonathan Gray, Senior Researcher, e-Government Initiative at NICTA. I was able to meet Jonathon straight away. I demonstrated the EDemocracy prototype and provide a link to further information at the NICTA e-Government Initiative page.

I understand that EGovernment is not Edemocracy, but Jonathan may refer me to some others in Canberra that may be interested in a Web 3.0 Climate Stability network. I will need all the help I can get. I am hoping a Web 3.0 transparent approach will allow people interested in my projects and opportunities to find me. We can then assemble a community to create the Web 3.0 online networks on the path to Web 4.0 and transform the world in 365 days.

We need to build the Web 3.0 online social, industry and political networks on the critical path to Web 4.0 and pull in the next stage of financial markets, economic development, environmental sustainability, awareness, life, work and global governance. We need five online networks to solve the worlds problems by 2012 or we decline into conflict for generations. A global community could transform the world in 365 days by building the Web 3.0 online networks on the critical path to Web 4.0.

Regulated capitalism is the last man standing. We have no choice but to make it work. We must, however, acknowledge that regulated capitalism has failed its citizens comprehensively. The failure of regulated capitalism is equal to the collapse of central planning. The communists recognised their system had failed and chose to implement something else. Will capitalists do the same? Or will we try to save the status quo at any price? Will bailouts move on to other “too big too let fail” activities that prevent the operation of creative destruction?

I just lodged five applications to the Knight Foundation’s News Challenge. My applications can be reviewed here. An overview of the Knight Foundation is provided below. A summary of my applications are available below.

Web 1.0 delivered the internet and connected large numbers of people. Web 2.0 demonstrated the technology to assemble and manage large global crowds with a common interest in social interaction. Web 3.0 will apply online network concepts to industry, economic development, climate stability, poverty and democracy. Web 3.0 online networks allow people to see through the community or market and facilitate collective matching, learning and consumption in hours (not months). Web 4.0 achieves a critical mass of participation in online networks that deliver global transparency, governance, distribution, participation, collaboration in key industry, political, social and other community endeavours. Web 4.0 delivers community sovereignty to channels and information.

I just read a Financial Times article which states that the E-Democracy prototype has an immediate application. Please read E-democracy just six weeks away! Political sovereignty exercised directly by citizens through an online political network.

This presentation was given by Sequoia Capital to their portfolio companies. It provides a visual and graphical insight into the causes of the current financial crisis and how the US became bankrupt. I thought I would embed it in a post for your convenience. Highly recommended!

The United States government could make a profit on its “bailout”. Bailout is an emotive term that is popular in an environment of fear and uncertainty. The primary fear being that the funds will simply replace losses in financial institutions and be government expenditure. The US government would be buying residential mortgages with an exposure to residential property prices that have a recoverable value in the future. Residential mortgages are a safe and predictable asset class (as a portfolio). The US government could make a profit - it depends on three things.

Price Waterhouse’s Technology Forecast (Summer 2008) provides some commentary on the emergence of Web 2.0 type online social networks in the enterprise. The report offers an insight into the elements that drive Web 2.0. It does, however, not identify compelling reasons for the enterprise to adopt the principles of Web 2.0. I have expanded on the concept of Web 2.0 and offer an insight into what Web 3.0 and Web 4.0. A survey in the report also states that 51% of the Global 2000 are buying Web 2.0 solutions. However, it would be interesting to understand the proportion of these projects that are small solutions like “wikis” or disruptive platforms that deliver enterprise innovation or industry innovation.

Poverty is a complex issue. Poverty is a complex issue. It has a wide variety of causes that include trade, HIV/AIDS, unserviceable debt, investment capital allocation and immigration laws. Many efforts to change the situation rely upon influencing or changing opaque channels. This has proven to be ineffective. The Millennium Goals could be achieved if we act now. However, these goals won’t be achieved if we continue to try to influence Web 1.0 opaque channels. We need to transcend “opaque channels” by applying the key elements of a Web 3.0 online network to create online communities that focus and coordinate collective energy.

The US system has collapsed. Failed financial firms are trying to convince the government to invest in them. The selling proposition? - “too big to let fail!” Understandably, the US congress are making further enquiries before writing a cheque for US$800 billion dollars. The US already terminally insolvent - even with unprecedented growth it can not repay its debts. Another US$800 billion won’t push it over the edge. It passed the edge a while back. A private receivership committee may have been formed in international markets. It will operate in “opaque channels”. A private online political network would be essential coordinate timely international activities amongst US creditors. The aspirations of the average American remain the same. They can be sold a “story” by mainstream media that permits further avoidance of debt repayments or justifies activities that acquire international “leverage”. An E-democracy online network and/or a US insolvency online network could be used to inform the US public. Maybe, they will assume responsibility, or maybe they would prefer not to know.

Analysis based upon the more “conservative” P90 estimate may drive up oil prices and may encourage the search for more oil reserves and development of substitutes. The world’s oil reserves are very “opaque” - very few know what we actually have. The difference between P50 and P90 means that Peak Oil may not be an urgent problem for the next decade. It remains a critical problem for the next few decades and this century. The management of peak oil needs to be actively managed - more transparent and a global approach to how scarce resources are applied.

An online political network can replace expensive proprietary distribution channels and with a virtually costless channel that provides a superior means to deliver the primary objective of democracy to ensure “political sovereignty [is] retained by the people and exercised directly by citizens”. Democracy is entirely based upon information and could be facilitated by an online political network. Our politicians make choices about economic, social and industry policies and implement them with laws. Citizens choose politicians based on information. Online political networks provide internet applications to facilitate the exchange of information, collaboration and the political process between citizens, government executives, politicians and other stakeholders in the politcal process. This article offers a potential structure for this network. I have also developed an initial prototype of this web application that has the global scalability of the Amazon Web Services cloud. The web application may be available in six weeks, but the transition to this online network may take six months or 50 years In Politics 3.0, individual transparency through online networks and internet traffic to a politicians profile may be determine whether a politician gets elected or not.

The 2009 demographic depression will be exacerbated by a food and energy crisis, the decline of the USD dollar in value, the decline of the USD as the world’s reserve currency, a global credit crisis, the world’s central banks pursuing inconsistent policies, competing interests in the Middle East and other challenges now confront the world at a singular point.

I recently read A New Earth by Eckhart Tolle. “At the core of the teachings lies the transformation of consciousness, a spiritual awakening that he sees as the next step in human evolution. An essential aspect of this awakening consists in transcending our ego based state of consciousness. This is a prerequisite not only for personal happiness but also for the ending of violent conflict endemic on our planet” (Inside back cover, A New Earth ). This has prompted the following question? Could a open source style online network, like Linux, focus the global consciousness to accelerate the solutions to immediate global problems. How would the online network be structured? How many people would be needed? Can this right brain global consciousness be just another resource or function of a left brain information distribution and collaboration online network?

There is an opportunity for a Linux style online community to coordinate the individual contribution of scientists, government, corporations, philanthropists and the community to pursue/deliver climate stability. Virginearth.com would be an ideal forum for this initiative. Richard Branson and Al Gore could inspire an global online community and encourage government and corporations to contribute essential intellectual property to a solution and deliver climate stability.

The primary ego on the world stage today is the US - its excessive consumption, insolvency, military aggression and use of 60% of the world’s savings make it the world’s most gluttonous consumer. Its military acquisition of the worlds resources may be the greatest strategic move in history. It provides resources to pay back unserviceable debts and leverage other countries on the global stage. However, the destruction of relationships in the process will crowd out an opportunity to deliver a sustainable future for the planet. Unrelenting ego by the US may win the resource wars, but the destruction of global relationships in the process sacrifice the opportunity for a sustainable future. An online network may not save the world, but could a collective conscious network.

We need to deploy five online political, industrial and social networks to avert disaster by 2012. Existing structures that rely on proprietary ownership of information, distribution channels, institutions and regional approaches are unable to solve our most pressing problems. Even if they could solve the problems, they are simply unable to coordinate a global endeavour in a rapidly closing timeframe. I had previously written that online networks could be delayed for up to 50 years by three epic battles. In some aspects of our global community, we can wait 50 years (and there is only an opportunity cost). However, for some specific problems, online networks need to be built, acquire a significant audience, and achieve their objective by 2012.

Recent market turmoil is likely to eliminate the growth on stock exchange trading volumes. This growth had driven the growing revenue of stock exchanges in the last five years. Cost cutting has also contributed significantly to profitability. With growth unlikely and further opportunities for cost reduction minimal, stock exchanges will now seriously consider other strategic initiatives. Collaborative hubs are likely to be at the top of the list.

At its simplest, the business of stock exchanges is the matching of buyers and sellers of quantities of shares. At its more complex are important functions of settlement and custody. The industry could, however, run on a single computer anywhere in the world and offers a very narrow niche of functionality for the equity market. Most of the stock exchange infrastructure in the world is obsolete. It could also be suggested that much of the software that runs enterprises is also obsolete. If the software is not obsolete, it could be replaced or rebuilt at a fraction of the cost. Stock exchange consolidation may just combine redundant technology, declining customers bases and a redundant business model. This legacy may prevent new initiatives to provide greater access to the equity market for smaller companies. We may have a larger organisation with the same redundant business model with limited access to a niche of potential market participants. Will this new organisation provide greater access to capital markets for all market participants?

Grant Thornton conducts an annual review of global growth markets. The report confirms a number of key trends. Capital markets are becoming more global and less regional, financial centres and specialising and certain stock exchanges are growing strongly. The most popular growth exhanges are in UK (AIM), Singapore, Hong Kong and Canada. Companies are becoming increasingly comfortable listing on foreign exchanges. This is contributing the the rise of specialist financial centres and global growth stock exchanges. The internet provides investors with transparency and direct access to information. Many stock exchanges and their closed information networks will struggle to find a niche in a globally connected world and free flow of information. Globally distributed online networks are likely to support growth companies and growth exchanges. Online networks will deliver the international companies, advisers and investors necessary to deliver liquidity to small exchanges that have been historically restricted to local business.

Online networks which embody every facet of industrial, social and politcal aspects of our modern society are inevitable. They simply offer a superior way to interact and transact. The transition to a global community based around online networks will take six months, sixteen years or fifty years. The timeframe will depend upon the outcome of three epic battles. The battles are economic development vs geostrategy, community knowledge vs intellectual property, and online networks vs closed systems. Online industrial, political and social networks which are involved in these battles could be delayed for decades.