Posts filed under 'Economic development'
Our society is in transition. It is applying new technologies to create new structures. Proprietary information is no longer necessary to encourage innovation or distribution channels. The internet provides a virtually free distribution channel in a services based economy. Online social networks have redefined how we interact with large numbers of people adopting new behaviours. Online industry network will redefine industry. Online political networks will redefine politics.
The following is intended to provide a summary of how our society operating in a Web 1.0 world and the emerging Web 3.0 world. This is one of a series of concepts that explain the evolution toward Web 3.0. I recommend you review the visual overview of these concepts in the Marcus.cake overview presentation.
Continue Reading August 19th, 2008
An online political network can replace expensive proprietary distribution channels and with a virtually costless channel that provides a superior means to deliver the primary objective of democracy to ensure “political sovereignty [is] retained by the people and exercised directly by citizens”. Democracy is entirely based upon information and could be facilitated by an online political network. Our politicians make choices about economic, social and industry policies and implement them with laws. Citizens choose politicians based on information. Online political networks provide internet applications to facilitate the exchange of information, collaboration and the political process between citizens, government executives, politicians and other stakeholders in the politcal process. This article offers a potential structure for this network. I have also developed an initial prototype of this web application that has the global scalability of the Amazon Web Services cloud. The web application may be available in six weeks, but the transition to this online network may take six months or 50 years In Politics 3.0, individual transparency through online networks and internet traffic to a politicians profile may be determine whether a politician gets elected or not.
Continue Reading July 31st, 2008
Rightscale and Amazon Web Services now offers essential features not previously available - automatic scaling , Manager for MySQL and Persistent Storage. The Amazon Web Services platform empowered the entrepreneur, but advanced technical skills were still required to solve storage and scalability issues to create a truly scalable application. These latest developments are critical building blocks of transformative online networks and bring the power direct to the entrepreneur. This power is available by using the Rightscale dashboard/service. They charge USD2,500 to setup your server and USD500 per month to use the dashboard. This is a fraction of the cost of a comparable web hosting configuration five years ago, assuming a comparable web hosting configuration could be built. Competitive advantage can no longer be derived from the prohibitive cost of web hosting or ability to scale a web application. Unlimited storage and global scalability is now available to the entrepreneur (that is a hacker).
Continue Reading July 30th, 2008
The era of online networks which manage information of no value is ending. The era of online networks that manage valuable information and reshape industry is beginning. The foundation for online networks has been building for decades. The most recent milestone may have been 90% broadband penetration rates in the major economies. The next generation of online social, industry and political networks will deliver unprecedented transparency, liquidity and accessibility in all aspects of society.
Continue Reading July 27th, 2008
The 2009 demographic depression will be exacerbated by a food and energy crisis, the decline of the USD dollar in value, the decline of the USD as the world’s reserve currency, a global credit crisis, the world’s central banks pursuing inconsistent policies, competing interests in the Middle East and other challenges now confront the world at a singular point.
Continue Reading July 18th, 2008
Online social networks provide internet applications to facilitate social interaction between people. Online industry networks provide internet applications to facilitate collaboration, information distribution and markets between participants within an industry. A focus on an industry fundamentally changes the economics of an online social network in terms of profitability, time to break-even and investment funding required.
Continue Reading July 10th, 2008
Morgan Stanley has released a research report on Internet Trends (June 2008). I recommend reviewing the presentation. It contains some interesting statistics on shifts in online advertising, the movement of market share to Asia and the decline in US relevance to the global economy.
Continue Reading June 30th, 2008
I recently read A New Earth by Eckhart Tolle. “At the core of the teachings lies the transformation of consciousness, a spiritual awakening that he sees as the next step in human evolution. An essential aspect of this awakening consists in transcending our ego based state of consciousness. This is a prerequisite not only for personal happiness but also for the ending of violent conflict endemic on our planet” (Inside back cover, A New Earth ). This has prompted the following question? Could a open source style online network, like Linux, focus the global consciousness to accelerate the solutions to immediate global problems. How would the online network be structured? How many people would be needed? Can this right brain global consciousness be just another resource or function of a left brain information distribution and collaboration online network?
Continue Reading May 25th, 2008
HSDent.com is offering a free sample of its research to the public. The latest free sample outlines the “12 Steps to the Next Great Depression (an excerpt from their January 2008 HS Dent Forecast monthly newsletter). I recommend you download the report and review.
Continue Reading May 14th, 2008
There is an opportunity for a Linux style online community to coordinate the individual contribution of scientists, government, corporations, philanthropists and the community to pursue/deliver climate stability. Virginearth.com would be an ideal forum for this initiative. Richard Branson and Al Gore could inspire an global online community and encourage government and corporations to contribute essential intellectual property to a solution and deliver climate stability.
Continue Reading May 5th, 2008
The primary ego on the world stage today is the US - its excessive consumption, insolvency, military aggression and use of 60% of the world’s savings make it the world’s most gluttonous consumer. Its military acquisition of the worlds resources may be the greatest strategic move in history. It provides resources to pay back unserviceable debts and leverage other countries on the global stage. However, the destruction of relationships in the process will crowd out an opportunity to deliver a sustainable future for the planet. Unrelenting ego by the US may win the resource wars, but the destruction of global relationships in the process sacrifice the opportunity for a sustainable future. An online network may not save the world, but could a collective conscious network.
Continue Reading May 2nd, 2008
We need to deploy five online political, industrial and social networks to avert disaster by 2012. Existing structures that rely on proprietary ownership of information, distribution channels, institutions and regional approaches are unable to solve our most pressing problems. Even if they could solve the problems, they are simply unable to coordinate a global endeavour in a rapidly closing timeframe. I had previously written that online networks could be delayed for up to 50 years by three epic battles. In some aspects of our global community, we can wait 50 years (and there is only an opportunity cost). However, for some specific problems, online networks need to be built, acquire a significant audience, and achieve their objective by 2012.
Continue Reading April 1st, 2008
The best places in the world to live are France, Australia, Netherlands, New Zealand, United States, Switzerland, Denmark, Italy, Luxembourg, Argentina.
Continue Reading August 1st, 2007
The next phase of economic development will be driven by the freedom of information and innovation generated by enthusiastic open source communities. Microsoft is asserting its patent portfolio is being violated by open source community software. It seems determined to strike at the heart that may drive the next phase of economic development. That heart is information freedom and enthusiasm of open source communities.
We empower government with the responsibility of providing the framework to promote economic development. Proprietary ownership of knowledge is no longer necessary to encourage innovation, but it still form a key part of our economic system. Open source communities are being unleashed on a global stage. Our community has a choice - enforcement of the current system of private ownership of knowledge, or allow information to be free to make humanity wealthier. Microsoft probably can’t kill humanity’s opportunity to become wealthier, but the broader battle may. The key threat to open source and online networks is the government regulatory response to the battle between community knowledge and intellectual property.
Continue Reading May 22nd, 2007
Online networks which embody every facet of industrial, social and politcal aspects of our modern society are inevitable. They simply offer a superior way to interact and transact. The transition to a global community based around online networks will take six months, sixteen years or fifty years. The timeframe will depend upon the outcome of three epic battles. The battles are economic development vs geostrategy, community knowledge vs intellectual property, and online networks vs closed systems. Online industrial, political and social networks which are involved in these battles could be delayed for decades.
Continue Reading May 22nd, 2007
Online industry networks could develop pharmaceutical products using open source principles. The Tropical Diseases Initiative is an example of an “open source” online network developing drugs for tropical diseases. It operates in a niche that is uneconomic or unviable for the pharmaceutical industry. It has been allowed to survive as a result. It demonstrates the potential of online networks in the pharmaceutical industry. A description of the Tropical Disease Initiative is provided below.
Continue Reading May 22nd, 2007
Information technologies which capture, store, process or transmit information double in performance or halve in cost every 18 months. Moore’s law has been working patiently for 40 years. In an information economy, this should have had a dramatic effect. However, political, industrial and social structures largely remain the same. Advances in technology have not changed the fundamentally way that our society or economy has operated. The right information in the right place at the right time will transform the world. This transformation will only start now. This article will discuss why such a process should only begin now and what role information is likely to have.
Continue Reading May 15th, 2007
The Centre for Freedom and Prosperity Foundation has released a paper which seeks to clarify the myth versus reality of tax havens. An extract from the paper is provided below.
Continue Reading May 4th, 2007
Amazon web services are pioneering essential building blocks for economic development. These blocks will provide a foundation for the next phase of online networks which will pioneer new structures. They reduce processing power and information storage to basic utilities, just like telephone, gas and electric supply. The storage service (S3) and web hosting service (EC2) cost less than 50% of traditional approaches and are more flexible and simpler to use.
Hackers can design their online network at home and simply drag and drop it onto the Amazon cloud. The conventional approach would require a large number of employees or consultants to deliver equivalent functionality. Ofcourse, a significant amount of time was required to raise capital from investors to pay for it. Today, a hacker can create an application on the (free) Linux desktop and an open source development platform. A major ebusiness could be built by a hacker with less than US25k in external development. If you are not a hacker, then you will need to raise some serious capital because you will need significant support to navigate unfamiliar ground and achieve your outcomes.
Continue Reading April 24th, 2007
At different points in history, either economic development or geostrategy prevail. The proportions of time that our history has spent in one or the other is debatable. Few would debate that we are in a period dominated by geostrategy. The battle may be even narrowly defined. It is a battle by an insolvent superpower to maintain its supremacy, preserve its industries and maintain access to global resources. There have been many superpowers throughout history. At this point, it is the United States. In 1900, it was Great Britain. There will be another superpower in 2100.
Continue Reading April 9th, 2007
What if we did have cars that cost $25 and got 1,000 miles to the gallon? What if the Moore law rates of innovation and improvement could be applied to the world’s problems. What if Moore’s law rates of improvement applied to aircraft engines, car engines, carbon dioxide emissions, industrial pollution, cures for disease, energy and minerals usage, education and leadership. Our world is evolving. Advances in technology present new ways to organise. Online networks are likely to be a step forwards. An expansion of intellectual property laws is likely to be a step backwards. If there was a new way to deliver greater rates of innovation, we have a compelling need to solve specific global problems. We need to question that our underlying assumptions of how to organise.
Continue Reading April 6th, 2007
The objectives of open source will change over time. As open source evolves and proves its capability, it will move beyond technology, beyond specific industries, to all other aspects of our society. This has been suggested in the past. However, existing organisations are not sufficiently motivated to apply advances in technology to promote development. Business, social and political entrepreneurs that establish online networks are likely to be the primary force for change.
This article outlines the first four stages of the development of online networks and the .Net boom. The objective of the online network in each stage is identified.
Continue Reading March 24th, 2007
China has one trillion dollars in foreigh reserves. This has been accumulated over many years of patient and successful exporting. China earns US$140 billion per year from the United States alone. Apparently, most of the one trillion dollars is invested in low-yielding US bonds. According to the IMF, China only needs 650 billion (65% of one trillion) to provide a safety buffer to operate its economy. China is considering reallocating US$350 billion into other investments that may provide a higher yield. With ongoing trade surpluses, it could invest one trillion dollars over the next yen years. China could become the world’s largest private equity investor.
Continue Reading March 19th, 2007
The next evolution in economic development and the evolution of the internet is likely to be user generated industries. This will move beyond user content to valuable industries which distribute valuable information. Online industry networks will facilitate collaboration and distribute information. Small groups may specialise in the manufacture of information. They will rely on online networks to distribute it. Consumers of information will increasing source their products from online networks.
A user generated industry combines user generated content and user generated infrastructure to distribute products and services from individual manufacturers to individual consumers. There are significant economic and social benefits for the individual manufacturers and consumers of information. Individuals can focus on their unique speciality, work from home and be their own boss. Customers obtain the convenience of online delivery and lower costs. Organisations that have only served the community by distributing information are likely to be rendered redundant by technology advances. These will need to find other means to add value to the global community if they are to survive. Some will not.
Continue Reading March 17th, 2007
My definition of the word hacker has evolved. From programmers cracking computer security (called crackers) to my modest efforts to improve my golf and, now, to skilled people contributing to online networks that reflect their passions and interests. A hacker has the tenacity and persistence to solve problems, often for the sake of solving it. They have the vision of architects, the skills of engineers and empathy of a mother with her upset child. They make significant sacrifices in pursuit of their goal. They navigate around, or though, barriers in their path. They do not rest (if inspired) until the problem is solved, or the challenge is overcome. If only my golf, could be described in these terms.
Online networks will be an essential tool of hackers. The will capture and focus the unique contribution of other hackers. Collective talent, energy and innovation will reshape industrial, social and political frameworks over the next decade.
Continue Reading March 17th, 2007
The potential of open source software, open source principles and collective innovation is significant. They could change the world. They should, at the very least, change information intensive industries. These assertions are largely an intellectual argument. The thoughts of an individual. The compelling value of open source and collective innovation as a solution needs to be demonstrated.
Continue Reading March 10th, 2007
Companies in developed countries will need access to the 33 million university educated professionals working in the developing world. Immigration can only solve a proportion of the problem. Online networks will be an essential tool to find and coordinate delivery of talent from the developing countries to global projects. This international talent pool will deliver services to every industry on every continent. Organisations will need to know how to participate in, or build, an online network to access this resource.
Continue Reading March 8th, 2007
Wikipedia offers a general introduction to perception of perspective. I am not an expert on these matters and they are beyond my core competence. However, given that I have develoepd a large number of blog articles on some important topics, it is important that I acknoledge the obvious. That an individuals perception and perspective is based upon their environmment and experience. Our perception and perspective is formed by whatever source we get our information from. It may be a ten second sound bite from the televsion. It may be internet research over a few hours. Some sources of information may not be true and some may promote another agenda by omitting or including certain information. These omissions are probably the result of commercial pressures or the need by the majority of consumers for convenient and quick analysis, rather than exhaustive analysis. It is my view that for those that wish greater understanding, online networks will rise to provide greater information beyond the sound bite.
My approach
It is the approach in my articles to avoid providing opinions. I prefer to extract comments of a credible author and summarise and provide an additional perspective. In short, I would prefer to be conduit for the “things you should know” and to identify shifts. I avoid, “the US is bankrupt” and instead quote the US Treasury Department and the Comptroller General of the United States. The credibility of the message is much higher as a result. My perception and perspective is significantly influenced by my education as an economist and experience as a businessman. A psychologist may see the underlying cause of an event as primal or the seven deadly sins. A historian may attribute the underlying cause to specific events in history which have a cascading effect. I perceive the world as competition between nation states, industries and companies. As a result my articles and sources, reflect the way that I view the world. It is just an additional perspective. I encourage you to read widely. There are always multiple ways to understand an issue. It is, however, important to understand that economic and financial issues are one of the most important issues. If you can’t afford to pay for something, it is irrelevant whether you should.
March 7th, 2007
The world confronts key challenges. Demand is outstripping supply of food, oil and water. Many countries are insolvent through unrestrained consumption, unserviceable debt and unfundable promises. Countries are unable to communally agree on measures to reduce environmental impact of human activity. The action that needs to be taken is generally agreed by independent experts, but political leadership is keen to defer implementation for a few more years, or require others to bear a disproportionate burden. Like Peak Oil and Peak Food, the global community suffers from Peak Leadership - a rapidly increasing demand for leadership, and declining supply.
Continue Reading February 28th, 2007
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