Marcus Cake

We need to build the Web 3.0 online social, industry and political networks on the critical path to Web 4.0 and pull in the next stage of financial markets, economic development, environmental sustainability, awareness, life, work and global governance. We need five online networks to solve the worlds problems by 2012 or we decline into conflict for generations. A global community could transform the world in 365 days by building the Web 3.0 online networks on the critical path to Web 4.0.

Regulated capitalism is the last man standing. We have no choice but to make it work. We must, however, acknowledge that regulated capitalism has failed its citizens comprehensively. The failure of regulated capitalism is equal to the collapse of central planning. The communists recognised their system had failed and chose to implement something else. Will capitalists do the same? Or will we try to save the status quo at any price? Will bailouts move on to other “too big too let fail” activities that prevent the operation of creative destruction?

I just lodged five applications to the Knight Foundation’s News Challenge. My applications can be reviewed here. An overview of the Knight Foundation is provided below. A summary of my applications are available below.

Web 1.0 delivered the internet and connected large numbers of people. Web 2.0 demonstrated the technology to assemble and manage large global crowds with a common interest in social interaction. Web 3.0 will apply online network concepts to industry, economic development, climate stability, poverty and democracy. Web 3.0 online networks allow people to see through the community or market and facilitate collective matching, learning and consumption in hours (not months). Web 4.0 achieves a critical mass of participation in online networks that deliver global transparency, governance, distribution, participation, collaboration in key industry, political, social and other community endeavours. Web 4.0 delivers community sovereignty to channels and information.

Price Waterhouse’s Technology Forecast (Summer 2008) provides some commentary on the emergence of Web 2.0 type online social networks in the enterprise. The report offers an insight into the elements that drive Web 2.0. It does, however, not identify compelling reasons for the enterprise to adopt the principles of Web 2.0. I have expanded on the concept of Web 2.0 and offer an insight into what Web 3.0 and Web 4.0. A survey in the report also states that 51% of the Global 2000 are buying Web 2.0 solutions. However, it would be interesting to understand the proportion of these projects that are small solutions like “wikis” or disruptive platforms that deliver enterprise innovation or industry innovation.

The US system has collapsed. Failed financial firms are trying to convince the government to invest in them. The selling proposition? - “too big to let fail!” Understandably, the US congress are making further enquiries before writing a cheque for US$800 billion dollars. The US already terminally insolvent - even with unprecedented growth it can not repay its debts. Another US$800 billion won’t push it over the edge. It passed the edge a while back. A private receivership committee may have been formed in international markets. It will operate in “opaque channels”. A private online political network would be essential coordinate timely international activities amongst US creditors. The aspirations of the average American remain the same. They can be sold a “story” by mainstream media that permits further avoidance of debt repayments or justifies activities that acquire international “leverage”. An E-democracy online network and/or a US insolvency online network could be used to inform the US public. Maybe, they will assume responsibility, or maybe they would prefer not to know.

IBM conducted a survey of 1,130 CEO s, general managers and senior public sector and business leaders from around
the world. I read with interest the comments that highlighted the potential application of online social and industry networks in facilitating collaboration, participation and information distribution in industries. We turnkey online networks for the financial markets and are also keen to contribute to open source software community that maintains an “Online network Solution” open source software project for any entrepreneur or organisation. I have extracted some interesting comments and recommend you read the full report.

Our society is in transition. It is applying new technologies to create new structures. Proprietary information is no longer necessary to encourage innovation or distribution channels. The internet provides a virtually free distribution channel in a services based economy. Online social networks have redefined how we interact with large numbers of people adopting new behaviours. Online industry network will redefine industry. Online political networks will redefine politics.

The following is intended to provide a summary of how our society operating in a Web 1.0 world and the emerging Web 3.0 world. This is one of a series of concepts that explain the evolution toward Web 3.0. I recommend you review the visual overview of these concepts in the Marcus.cake overview presentation.

The 2009 demographic depression will be exacerbated by a food and energy crisis, the decline of the USD dollar in value, the decline of the USD as the world’s reserve currency, a global credit crisis, the world’s central banks pursuing inconsistent policies, competing interests in the Middle East and other challenges now confront the world at a singular point.

We need to deploy five online political, industrial and social networks to avert disaster by 2012. Existing structures that rely on proprietary ownership of information, distribution channels, institutions and regional approaches are unable to solve our most pressing problems. Even if they could solve the problems, they are simply unable to coordinate a global endeavour in a rapidly closing timeframe. I had previously written that online networks could be delayed for up to 50 years by three epic battles. In some aspects of our global community, we can wait 50 years (and there is only an opportunity cost). However, for some specific problems, online networks need to be built, acquire a significant audience, and achieve their objective by 2012.

Recent market turmoil is likely to eliminate the growth on stock exchange trading volumes. This growth had driven the growing revenue of stock exchanges in the last five years. Cost cutting has also contributed significantly to profitability. With growth unlikely and further opportunities for cost reduction minimal, stock exchanges will now seriously consider other strategic initiatives. Collaborative hubs are likely to be at the top of the list.

At its simplest, the business of stock exchanges is the matching of buyers and sellers of quantities of shares. At its more complex are important functions of settlement and custody. The industry could, however, run on a single computer anywhere in the world and offers a very narrow niche of functionality for the equity market. Most of the stock exchange infrastructure in the world is obsolete. It could also be suggested that much of the software that runs enterprises is also obsolete. If the software is not obsolete, it could be replaced or rebuilt at a fraction of the cost. Stock exchange consolidation may just combine redundant technology, declining customers bases and a redundant business model. This legacy may prevent new initiatives to provide greater access to the equity market for smaller companies. We may have a larger organisation with the same redundant business model with limited access to a niche of potential market participants. Will this new organisation provide greater access to capital markets for all market participants?

Grant Thornton conducts an annual review of global growth markets. The report confirms a number of key trends. Capital markets are becoming more global and less regional, financial centres and specialising and certain stock exchanges are growing strongly. The most popular growth exhanges are in UK (AIM), Singapore, Hong Kong and Canada. Companies are becoming increasingly comfortable listing on foreign exchanges. This is contributing the the rise of specialist financial centres and global growth stock exchanges. The internet provides investors with transparency and direct access to information. Many stock exchanges and their closed information networks will struggle to find a niche in a globally connected world and free flow of information. Globally distributed online networks are likely to support growth companies and growth exchanges. Online networks will deliver the international companies, advisers and investors necessary to deliver liquidity to small exchanges that have been historically restricted to local business.

The best places in the world to live are France, Australia, Netherlands, New Zealand, United States, Switzerland, Denmark, Italy, Luxembourg, Argentina.

Regional stock exchanges are deprecated. They will be superseded by new structures in a global market. These new features include online industry networks, global and specialist stock exchanges and a global private equity industry that can provide capital for any size of transaction - small and large in any market. Companies will need time to change their approach and use these new features of the global equity market. Regional stock exchanges are likely to throw up a lot of deprecation errors, or public relations messages, as they struggle with emerging global exchanges and online industry networks. The pace of industry consolidation has rapidly increased in the last 18 months as the global stock exchange is created. With economies of scale, a global stock exchange may be able to provide access to the equity market for companies which previously could not get access. It is unclear whether the global exchanges currently being created will improve access to the equity market by smaller companies.

The process of stock exchange consolidation continues. Nasdaq agrees to acquire Sweden’s OMX for US$3.7b.

Online networks which embody every facet of industrial, social and politcal aspects of our modern society are inevitable. They simply offer a superior way to interact and transact. The transition to a global community based around online networks will take six months, sixteen years or fifty years. The timeframe will depend upon the outcome of three epic battles. The battles are economic development vs geostrategy, community knowledge vs intellectual property, and online networks vs closed systems. Online industrial, political and social networks which are involved in these battles could be delayed for decades.

Online industry networks could develop pharmaceutical products using open source principles. The Tropical Diseases Initiative is an example of an “open source” online network developing drugs for tropical diseases. It operates in a niche that is uneconomic or unviable for the pharmaceutical industry. It has been allowed to survive as a result. It demonstrates the potential of online networks in the pharmaceutical industry. A description of the Tropical Disease Initiative is provided below.

Most financial products, and particularly insurance, are entirely information based products. They have no physical existance and very little need for physical things to occur within a specific country. The internet allows any provider of an information product to form a direct relationship with the consumer. The two parties may be in any country. An insurance provider could be located in a specialist financial center optimised for insurance companies. The policy holder could be located anywhere in the world. The insurance provider could use freelancers in local countries to perform local tasks. For existing insurance providers, the internet could be seen as Pandora’s box by the insurance industry.

An online industry network for the insurance industry would be quite simple. The products would be identified. The assessement criteria for each product would be determined and broken down into questionaires. Local freelancers could be used for pre-policy due diligence and post-claim investigations. All could be coordinated by an open source application on a elastic cloud. Maybe a hacker could build an online industry network for the insurance industry for US$25k in 90 days. I suspect the insurance industry may take US$50k an 180 days for a truly global platform. The participants in an online industry network could be limited by company, country or encompass an entire industry. Ultimately, a global platform will develop.

Information technologies which capture, store, process or transmit information double in performance or halve in cost every 18 months. Moore’s law has been working patiently for 40 years. In an information economy, this should have had a dramatic effect. However, political, industrial and social structures largely remain the same. Advances in technology have not changed the fundamentally way that our society or economy has operated. The right information in the right place at the right time will transform the world. This transformation will only start now. This article will discuss why such a process should only begin now and what role information is likely to have.

The Centre for Freedom and Prosperity Foundation has released a paper which seeks to clarify the myth versus reality of tax havens. An extract from the paper is provided below.

At different points in history, either economic development or geostrategy prevail. The proportions of time that our history has spent in one or the other is debatable. Few would debate that we are in a period dominated by geostrategy. The battle may be even narrowly defined. It is a battle by an insolvent superpower to maintain its supremacy, preserve its industries and maintain access to global resources. There have been many superpowers throughout history. At this point, it is the United States. In 1900, it was Great Britain. There will be another superpower in 2100.

The objectives of open source will change over time. As open source evolves and proves its capability, it will move beyond technology, beyond specific industries, to all other aspects of our society. This has been suggested in the past. However, existing organisations are not sufficiently motivated to apply advances in technology to promote development. Business, social and political entrepreneurs that establish online networks are likely to be the primary force for change.

This article outlines the first four stages of the development of online networks and the .Net boom. The objective of the online network in each stage is identified.

China has one trillion dollars in foreigh reserves. This has been accumulated over many years of patient and successful exporting. China earns US$140 billion per year from the United States alone. Apparently, most of the one trillion dollars is invested in low-yielding US bonds. According to the IMF, China only needs 650 billion (65% of one trillion) to provide a safety buffer to operate its economy. China is considering reallocating US$350 billion into other investments that may provide a higher yield. With ongoing trade surpluses, it could invest one trillion dollars over the next yen years. China could become the world’s largest private equity investor.

Halliburton is restructuring its business to reflect new realities. The suppliers of oil are in the middle east. The largest customer for oil will soon be Asia. Capital is moving to non-US markets. An increasing proportion of revenue and capital will come from outside the US.
What makes a company a US company? Is it where its customers are? Is it where they have most of their employees are? Is it where future growth will come from? Is it where shareholders reside? Is it where it is incorporated? Subtle changes occured in Halliburton and the world which have all accumulated over time. A change in incorporation may simply reflect new realities. The Halliburton is a very public statement of global shifts. I do not know what conclusion can be drawn from the strong political reaction.

To ensure their survival, all organisations must serve the interests of their stakeholders. In the case of corporations, that is the shareholders. Corporations do not have the luxury of serving the wrong constituency. Quarterly reviews of performance and the possibility of takeovers serve as important tools to keep corporations focused on their constituency.

Companies in developed countries will need access to the 33 million university educated professionals working in the developing world. Immigration can only solve a proportion of the problem. Online networks will be an essential tool to find and coordinate delivery of talent from the developing countries to global projects. This international talent pool will deliver services to every industry on every continent. Organisations will need to know how to participate in, or build, an online network to access this resource.

My previous article, Could an online social network deliver a virtual Silicon Valley to non-US economies? , I concluded that online social or industry networks could deliver the people and chain reaction that could spawn a new Silicon Valley. Financial centres currently specialises in specific niches. The rise of online industry networks and the rise of global capital markets will result in the rise of specialist financial centres. to an unprecedented scale. These centres will offer a specific regulatory environment tailored to specific companies in specific industries.

The repatriation of capital from the US over the next five years is a once in a 200 year event. Financial centres will need to determine their strategy and execute unequivocally if they are to secure a niche.

Regulations have trailed the opportunities and benefits presented by technology. The SEC has only recently changed its regulation to allow the delivery of shareholder information by the internet. The internet presents the world with an opportunity for a truly global capital market. Regulation is critical to the integrity and credibility of equity markets. However, in an era of global business and the internet there are limits to the reach and effectiveness of regulation. My spam filter receives at least 10 emails a day recommending the purchase of the shares of a listed company. I suspect many receive similar emails. It is difficult to see how any method of regulation could protect an investor from Spam, or point to point communication. Can we protect the “investor” in a world where information can travel from individual to individual, companies can shift countries and advisers could use the internet to mask their identity. The challenge for global regulators is real. A careful balance must be struck between the need for efficient and effective capital markets, effective investor protection at a minimum of transaction costs. The efficient and effective operation of global capital markets is critical to capital formation, economic growth, taxes to fund government and having available resources to address the critical environmental, health and social problems of our time.

Economic development and new technologies can require significant adjustment for existing players. In financial markets, many of these business models were formed in the early 1900’s. Large organisations and signficant infrastructure was required to distribute information from point to point. In an era of the internet, the cost of distributing information point to point is almost zero. Information distribution business based upon old business models must adapt. Given the significant investments, many current players are unable to change. Only new entrants have the flexibility to offer new business models offered by the internet.