Marcus Cake

We need to build the Web 3.0 online social, industry and political networks on the critical path to Web 4.0 and pull in the next stage of financial markets, economic development, environmental sustainability, awareness, life, work and global governance. We need five online networks to solve the worlds problems by 2012 or we decline into conflict for generations. A global community could transform the world in 365 days by building the Web 3.0 online networks on the critical path to Web 4.0.

The US system has collapsed. Failed financial firms are trying to convince the government to invest in them. The selling proposition? - “too big to let fail!” Understandably, the US congress are making further enquiries before writing a cheque for US$800 billion dollars. The US already terminally insolvent - even with unprecedented growth it can not repay its debts. Another US$800 billion won’t push it over the edge. It passed the edge a while back. A private receivership committee may have been formed in international markets. It will operate in “opaque channels”. A private online political network would be essential coordinate timely international activities amongst US creditors. The aspirations of the average American remain the same. They can be sold a “story” by mainstream media that permits further avoidance of debt repayments or justifies activities that acquire international “leverage”. An E-democracy online network and/or a US insolvency online network could be used to inform the US public. Maybe, they will assume responsibility, or maybe they would prefer not to know.

We need to deploy five online political, industrial and social networks to avert disaster by 2012. Existing structures that rely on proprietary ownership of information, distribution channels, institutions and regional approaches are unable to solve our most pressing problems. Even if they could solve the problems, they are simply unable to coordinate a global endeavour in a rapidly closing timeframe. I had previously written that online networks could be delayed for up to 50 years by three epic battles. In some aspects of our global community, we can wait 50 years (and there is only an opportunity cost). However, for some specific problems, online networks need to be built, acquire a significant audience, and achieve their objective by 2012.

Recent market turmoil is likely to eliminate the growth on stock exchange trading volumes. This growth had driven the growing revenue of stock exchanges in the last five years. Cost cutting has also contributed significantly to profitability. With growth unlikely and further opportunities for cost reduction minimal, stock exchanges will now seriously consider other strategic initiatives. Collaborative hubs are likely to be at the top of the list.

Grant Thornton conducts an annual review of global growth markets. The report confirms a number of key trends. Capital markets are becoming more global and less regional, financial centres and specialising and certain stock exchanges are growing strongly. The most popular growth exhanges are in UK (AIM), Singapore, Hong Kong and Canada. Companies are becoming increasingly comfortable listing on foreign exchanges. This is contributing the the rise of specialist financial centres and global growth stock exchanges. The internet provides investors with transparency and direct access to information. Many stock exchanges and their closed information networks will struggle to find a niche in a globally connected world and free flow of information. Globally distributed online networks are likely to support growth companies and growth exchanges. Online networks will deliver the international companies, advisers and investors necessary to deliver liquidity to small exchanges that have been historically restricted to local business.

The best places in the world to live are France, Australia, Netherlands, New Zealand, United States, Switzerland, Denmark, Italy, Luxembourg, Argentina.

Regional stock exchanges are deprecated. They will be superseded by new structures in a global market. These new features include online industry networks, global and specialist stock exchanges and a global private equity industry that can provide capital for any size of transaction - small and large in any market. Companies will need time to change their approach and use these new features of the global equity market. Regional stock exchanges are likely to throw up a lot of deprecation errors, or public relations messages, as they struggle with emerging global exchanges and online industry networks. The pace of industry consolidation has rapidly increased in the last 18 months as the global stock exchange is created. With economies of scale, a global stock exchange may be able to provide access to the equity market for companies which previously could not get access. It is unclear whether the global exchanges currently being created will improve access to the equity market by smaller companies.

Online networks which embody every facet of industrial, social and politcal aspects of our modern society are inevitable. They simply offer a superior way to interact and transact. The transition to a global community based around online networks will take six months, sixteen years or fifty years. The timeframe will depend upon the outcome of three epic battles. The battles are economic development vs geostrategy, community knowledge vs intellectual property, and online networks vs closed systems. Online industrial, political and social networks which are involved in these battles could be delayed for decades.

Online industry networks could develop pharmaceutical products using open source principles. The Tropical Diseases Initiative is an example of an “open source” online network developing drugs for tropical diseases. It operates in a niche that is uneconomic or unviable for the pharmaceutical industry. It has been allowed to survive as a result. It demonstrates the potential of online networks in the pharmaceutical industry. A description of the Tropical Disease Initiative is provided below.

Most financial products, and particularly insurance, are entirely information based products. They have no physical existance and very little need for physical things to occur within a specific country. The internet allows any provider of an information product to form a direct relationship with the consumer. The two parties may be in any country. An insurance provider could be located in a specialist financial center optimised for insurance companies. The policy holder could be located anywhere in the world. The insurance provider could use freelancers in local countries to perform local tasks. For existing insurance providers, the internet could be seen as Pandora’s box by the insurance industry.

An online industry network for the insurance industry would be quite simple. The products would be identified. The assessement criteria for each product would be determined and broken down into questionaires. Local freelancers could be used for pre-policy due diligence and post-claim investigations. All could be coordinated by an open source application on a elastic cloud. Maybe a hacker could build an online industry network for the insurance industry for US$25k in 90 days. I suspect the insurance industry may take US$50k an 180 days for a truly global platform. The participants in an online industry network could be limited by company, country or encompass an entire industry. Ultimately, a global platform will develop.

Information technologies which capture, store, process or transmit information double in performance or halve in cost every 18 months. Moore’s law has been working patiently for 40 years. In an information economy, this should have had a dramatic effect. However, political, industrial and social structures largely remain the same. Advances in technology have not changed the fundamentally way that our society or economy has operated. The right information in the right place at the right time will transform the world. This transformation will only start now. This article will discuss why such a process should only begin now and what role information is likely to have.

The Centre for Freedom and Prosperity Foundation has released a paper which seeks to clarify the myth versus reality of tax havens. An extract from the paper is provided below.

The objectives of open source will change over time. As open source evolves and proves its capability, it will move beyond technology, beyond specific industries, to all other aspects of our society. This has been suggested in the past. However, existing organisations are not sufficiently motivated to apply advances in technology to promote development. Business, social and political entrepreneurs that establish online networks are likely to be the primary force for change.

This article outlines the first four stages of the development of online networks and the .Net boom. The objective of the online network in each stage is identified.

Halliburton is restructuring its business to reflect new realities. The suppliers of oil are in the middle east. The largest customer for oil will soon be Asia. Capital is moving to non-US markets. An increasing proportion of revenue and capital will come from outside the US.
What makes a company a US company? Is it where its customers are? Is it where they have most of their employees are? Is it where future growth will come from? Is it where shareholders reside? Is it where it is incorporated? Subtle changes occured in Halliburton and the world which have all accumulated over time. A change in incorporation may simply reflect new realities. The Halliburton is a very public statement of global shifts. I do not know what conclusion can be drawn from the strong political reaction.

To ensure their survival, all organisations must serve the interests of their stakeholders. In the case of corporations, that is the shareholders. Corporations do not have the luxury of serving the wrong constituency. Quarterly reviews of performance and the possibility of takeovers serve as important tools to keep corporations focused on their constituency.

My previous article, Could an online social network deliver a virtual Silicon Valley to non-US economies? , I concluded that online social or industry networks could deliver the people and chain reaction that could spawn a new Silicon Valley. Financial centres currently specialises in specific niches. The rise of online industry networks and the rise of global capital markets will result in the rise of specialist financial centres. to an unprecedented scale. These centres will offer a specific regulatory environment tailored to specific companies in specific industries.

The repatriation of capital from the US over the next five years is a once in a 200 year event. Financial centres will need to determine their strategy and execute unequivocally if they are to secure a niche.

Regulations have trailed the opportunities and benefits presented by technology. The SEC has only recently changed its regulation to allow the delivery of shareholder information by the internet. The internet presents the world with an opportunity for a truly global capital market. Regulation is critical to the integrity and credibility of equity markets. However, in an era of global business and the internet there are limits to the reach and effectiveness of regulation. My spam filter receives at least 10 emails a day recommending the purchase of the shares of a listed company. I suspect many receive similar emails. It is difficult to see how any method of regulation could protect an investor from Spam, or point to point communication. Can we protect the “investor” in a world where information can travel from individual to individual, companies can shift countries and advisers could use the internet to mask their identity. The challenge for global regulators is real. A careful balance must be struck between the need for efficient and effective capital markets, effective investor protection at a minimum of transaction costs. The efficient and effective operation of global capital markets is critical to capital formation, economic growth, taxes to fund government and having available resources to address the critical environmental, health and social problems of our time.

Economic development and new technologies can require significant adjustment for existing players. In financial markets, many of these business models were formed in the early 1900’s. Large organisations and signficant infrastructure was required to distribute information from point to point. In an era of the internet, the cost of distributing information point to point is almost zero. Information distribution business based upon old business models must adapt. Given the significant investments, many current players are unable to change. Only new entrants have the flexibility to offer new business models offered by the internet.

The US consumer has driven much of the world economy for decades. It has been the perceived centre of the world for many industries. This is shifting. The primary source of global growth is likely to be Asia and Europe. This is a demographic reality as hundreds of millions of people in Asia enter the middle class. We only need to survive the shift from US centric to global.

Global capital will need to be looking for investment opportunities in Asia and Europe. Some markets are too small or have insufficient experience to deliver efficiency. The internet is likely to play a greater role in making the global capital market more efficient. Online industry networks will have an essential role to play in improving the allocation and efficiency of the capital allocation process.

Industrial use of the internet is at an early stage. Existing corporates have used the internet to reduce costs by distributing information in a lower cost means. However, there are few examples of industries that have been completely transformed. The primary purpose of some major industries is distribution of information between market participants. They have significant economic rents for taking information from one market participant, mildly transforming it and delivering it to another market participant. The internet offers free (almost) distribution and the ability to find other market participants. These significant economic rents for distribution seem redundant in an age of the internet.

The next wave of internet companies are likely to target the distribution of information with a commercial value. These are Online Industry Networks. These networks will simply break down existing labour intensive interactions and coordinate them in the internet. They will rely significantly on user generated content and each user assuming responsibility for the distribution of that information. The current intermediaries are unwilling to sacrifice the high economic rents for distribution by adopting new business models. Only new entrants will apply new business models to take advantage of the internet to deliver products and services at significantly less cost, in less time and without needing to visit a specific retail location. These businesses will facilitate the exchange of information from people to business. Freelancers from all around the world will manufacture the information and deliver it directly to the end user. An online industry network promote products and services of the community. Service providers can find customers and customers can search for service providers. The consumers of the information may have access to products and services previously denied by closed distribution channels.

Demographic shifts are the primary force that drive fundamental change. One billion consumers of US standards are to emerge. The United States will be an important market, but not the primary consumer or financial market in the world. Fiscal mismanagement by the United States will exacerbate the decline of the United States, but it is demography that will result in a more global market. The world will be “better” if the world can evolve from unsustainable debt funded consumption for the benefit of one country to global markets which share the benefits of economic development.

If Moore’s law continues, then the cost of hardware will continue to decline and the ability to run a bank from a desert island a reality. The ability of software to take advantage of these hardware advantages may be limited. The advances in hardware and emergence of Utility computing will overcome much of the limitation. The result will be unpredented opportunity for entrepreneurs to create applications to global audiences in an increasingly service oriented world. Linux is likely to be best placed to take advantage of advances in hardware.

Skype made internet telephony popular. It added video functionality to Skype last year. It has now added remote desktop or application sharing. As the worlds most popular internet telephone software, this will have a significant impact on the number of people that work together over the internet. Could Skype make application sharing popular just like it did for internet telephony?

The electronic distribution of shareholder information will reduce costs and provide immediate delivery of information to shareholders. Electronic delivery may bypass established channels for information delivery and may accelerate disintermediation. However, the change is likely to be a universally positive for market efficiency with more direct communication between a company, its shareholders and advisers. It may also be possible that reduced transaction costs could lead to improved access to capital markets by smaller companies.

There have been a few acquisitions of internet or technology companies at conventionally unjustifiable valuations. These have been the prominant aspect of a narrow technology boom (see .Net boom category). The price of oil and speculation in the oil market has, however, acted as a dampener on the extent of the technology boom. Higher oil prices have raised global growth concerns generally and speculative capital has been focussed on oil and resources. Speculation in oil has rewarded investors until recently. The recent “crash” in crude oil prices may reduce concerns about growth and speculative capital may look beyond oil investments. The technology boom is likely to gain further momentum as a result. I have extracted a few quotes to provide an insight the recent price decline and the delicate geostrategic and political balances in the market for oil. I encourage you to read the original article.

On 1st November 2006, the Isle of Man’s new Companies Act came into effect. The legislation included the ability to create “Protected Cell Companies”. “A PCC is a company with an internal structure that allows for the legal segregation of assets and liabilities into different cells and a central core. This framework is designed to offer increased protection to investors in individual cells from the liabilities and creditors of other cells.”
A PCC would appear to be a viable and useful structure with many applications. Only time will reveal its competitive advantage against other types of structures and the innovative uses this structure may be used.

My previously article “The Isle of Man New Manx Vehicle - simple, more flexible, offshore and part of the EU for VAT purposes” provided an overview of the Isle of Man. It highlighted the attributes of the jurisdiction for internet businesses and the introduction of the “New Manx Vehicle” corporate structure (”NMV”). The NMV was designed to compete more effectively with the corporate structure offered by the British Virgin Islands. In 2004, the BVI incorporated 60,000 companies and the Isle of Man just 2,593. The NMV will be available for incorporation from the 1st November 2006. Apparently, there is significant interest in the NMV. A ballott is being conducted to award the honour of being the first NMV incorporated.

Dubai is spending £140bn to transform itself into a capitalist powerhouse. The strategy being pursued in Dubai is unparalleled in history - a integrated and focussed strategy with unparalleled resources to make it happen. Dubai can build the hard infrastructure, but will the will the people, industries and businesses come? The comprehensive approach may deliver.

What strategies do countries need to adopt to enjoy higher levels of consumption and retirement in one generation? What short-term sacrifices would each citizen need to make? Which countries have leadship that could formulate and implement the required changes? Would the citizens tolerate the short-term sacrifices?

Striking a balance between consumer protection, compliance costs and maintaining an effective market to raise capital for companies is very difficult. The following two articles suggest that the balance is skewed heavily toward consumer protection to the detriment of companies. Companies are simply moving to new markets where capital is easier to raise and costs are lower. If the balance is not right, the migration of companies will result in lost jobs and lost tax revenue to other financial centres.