Marcus Cake

We need to build the Web 3.0 online social, industry and political networks on the critical path to Web 4.0 and pull in the next stage of financial markets, economic development, environmental sustainability, awareness, life, work and global governance. We need five online networks to solve the worlds problems by 2012 or we decline into conflict for generations. A global community could transform the world in 365 days by building the Web 3.0 online networks on the critical path to Web 4.0.

We need to deploy five online political, industrial and social networks to avert disaster by 2012. Existing structures that rely on proprietary ownership of information, distribution channels, institutions and regional approaches are unable to solve our most pressing problems. Even if they could solve the problems, they are simply unable to coordinate a global endeavour in a rapidly closing timeframe. I had previously written that online networks could be delayed for up to 50 years by three epic battles. In some aspects of our global community, we can wait 50 years (and there is only an opportunity cost). However, for some specific problems, online networks need to be built, acquire a significant audience, and achieve their objective by 2012.

Recent market turmoil is likely to eliminate the growth on stock exchange trading volumes. This growth had driven the growing revenue of stock exchanges in the last five years. Cost cutting has also contributed significantly to profitability. With growth unlikely and further opportunities for cost reduction minimal, stock exchanges will now seriously consider other strategic initiatives. Collaborative hubs are likely to be at the top of the list.

At its simplest, the business of stock exchanges is the matching of buyers and sellers of quantities of shares. At its more complex are important functions of settlement and custody. The industry could, however, run on a single computer anywhere in the world and offers a very narrow niche of functionality for the equity market. Most of the stock exchange infrastructure in the world is obsolete. It could also be suggested that much of the software that runs enterprises is also obsolete. If the software is not obsolete, it could be replaced or rebuilt at a fraction of the cost. Stock exchange consolidation may just combine redundant technology, declining customers bases and a redundant business model. This legacy may prevent new initiatives to provide greater access to the equity market for smaller companies. We may have a larger organisation with the same redundant business model with limited access to a niche of potential market participants. Will this new organisation provide greater access to capital markets for all market participants?

Grant Thornton conducts an annual review of global growth markets. The report confirms a number of key trends. Capital markets are becoming more global and less regional, financial centres and specialising and certain stock exchanges are growing strongly. The most popular growth exhanges are in UK (AIM), Singapore, Hong Kong and Canada. Companies are becoming increasingly comfortable listing on foreign exchanges. This is contributing the the rise of specialist financial centres and global growth stock exchanges. The internet provides investors with transparency and direct access to information. Many stock exchanges and their closed information networks will struggle to find a niche in a globally connected world and free flow of information. Globally distributed online networks are likely to support growth companies and growth exchanges. Online networks will deliver the international companies, advisers and investors necessary to deliver liquidity to small exchanges that have been historically restricted to local business.

Regional stock exchanges are deprecated. They will be superseded by new structures in a global market. These new features include online industry networks, global and specialist stock exchanges and a global private equity industry that can provide capital for any size of transaction - small and large in any market. Companies will need time to change their approach and use these new features of the global equity market. Regional stock exchanges are likely to throw up a lot of deprecation errors, or public relations messages, as they struggle with emerging global exchanges and online industry networks. The pace of industry consolidation has rapidly increased in the last 18 months as the global stock exchange is created. With economies of scale, a global stock exchange may be able to provide access to the equity market for companies which previously could not get access. It is unclear whether the global exchanges currently being created will improve access to the equity market by smaller companies.

The process of stock exchange consolidation continues. Nasdaq agrees to acquire Sweden’s OMX for US$3.7b.

Online networks which embody every facet of industrial, social and politcal aspects of our modern society are inevitable. They simply offer a superior way to interact and transact. The transition to a global community based around online networks will take six months, sixteen years or fifty years. The timeframe will depend upon the outcome of three epic battles. The battles are economic development vs geostrategy, community knowledge vs intellectual property, and online networks vs closed systems. Online industrial, political and social networks which are involved in these battles could be delayed for decades.

Information technologies which capture, store, process or transmit information double in performance or halve in cost every 18 months. Moore’s law has been working patiently for 40 years. In an information economy, this should have had a dramatic effect. However, political, industrial and social structures largely remain the same. Advances in technology have not changed the fundamentally way that our society or economy has operated. The right information in the right place at the right time will transform the world. This transformation will only start now. This article will discuss why such a process should only begin now and what role information is likely to have.

The objectives of open source will change over time. As open source evolves and proves its capability, it will move beyond technology, beyond specific industries, to all other aspects of our society. This has been suggested in the past. However, existing organisations are not sufficiently motivated to apply advances in technology to promote development. Business, social and political entrepreneurs that establish online networks are likely to be the primary force for change.

This article outlines the first four stages of the development of online networks and the .Net boom. The objective of the online network in each stage is identified.

My previous article, Could an online social network deliver a virtual Silicon Valley to non-US economies? , I concluded that online social or industry networks could deliver the people and chain reaction that could spawn a new Silicon Valley. Financial centres currently specialises in specific niches. The rise of online industry networks and the rise of global capital markets will result in the rise of specialist financial centres. to an unprecedented scale. These centres will offer a specific regulatory environment tailored to specific companies in specific industries.

The repatriation of capital from the US over the next five years is a once in a 200 year event. Financial centres will need to determine their strategy and execute unequivocally if they are to secure a niche.

Regulations have trailed the opportunities and benefits presented by technology. The SEC has only recently changed its regulation to allow the delivery of shareholder information by the internet. The internet presents the world with an opportunity for a truly global capital market. Regulation is critical to the integrity and credibility of equity markets. However, in an era of global business and the internet there are limits to the reach and effectiveness of regulation. My spam filter receives at least 10 emails a day recommending the purchase of the shares of a listed company. I suspect many receive similar emails. It is difficult to see how any method of regulation could protect an investor from Spam, or point to point communication. Can we protect the “investor” in a world where information can travel from individual to individual, companies can shift countries and advisers could use the internet to mask their identity. The challenge for global regulators is real. A careful balance must be struck between the need for efficient and effective capital markets, effective investor protection at a minimum of transaction costs. The efficient and effective operation of global capital markets is critical to capital formation, economic growth, taxes to fund government and having available resources to address the critical environmental, health and social problems of our time.

Economic development and new technologies can require significant adjustment for existing players. In financial markets, many of these business models were formed in the early 1900’s. Large organisations and signficant infrastructure was required to distribute information from point to point. In an era of the internet, the cost of distributing information point to point is almost zero. Information distribution business based upon old business models must adapt. Given the significant investments, many current players are unable to change. Only new entrants have the flexibility to offer new business models offered by the internet.

The US consumer has driven much of the world economy for decades. It has been the perceived centre of the world for many industries. This is shifting. The primary source of global growth is likely to be Asia and Europe. This is a demographic reality as hundreds of millions of people in Asia enter the middle class. We only need to survive the shift from US centric to global.

Global capital will need to be looking for investment opportunities in Asia and Europe. Some markets are too small or have insufficient experience to deliver efficiency. The internet is likely to play a greater role in making the global capital market more efficient. Online industry networks will have an essential role to play in improving the allocation and efficiency of the capital allocation process.

Industrial use of the internet is at an early stage. Existing corporates have used the internet to reduce costs by distributing information in a lower cost means. However, there are few examples of industries that have been completely transformed. The primary purpose of some major industries is distribution of information between market participants. They have significant economic rents for taking information from one market participant, mildly transforming it and delivering it to another market participant. The internet offers free (almost) distribution and the ability to find other market participants. These significant economic rents for distribution seem redundant in an age of the internet.

The next wave of internet companies are likely to target the distribution of information with a commercial value. These are Online Industry Networks. These networks will simply break down existing labour intensive interactions and coordinate them in the internet. They will rely significantly on user generated content and each user assuming responsibility for the distribution of that information. The current intermediaries are unwilling to sacrifice the high economic rents for distribution by adopting new business models. Only new entrants will apply new business models to take advantage of the internet to deliver products and services at significantly less cost, in less time and without needing to visit a specific retail location. These businesses will facilitate the exchange of information from people to business. Freelancers from all around the world will manufacture the information and deliver it directly to the end user. An online industry network promote products and services of the community. Service providers can find customers and customers can search for service providers. The consumers of the information may have access to products and services previously denied by closed distribution channels.

Demographic shifts are the primary force that drive fundamental change. One billion consumers of US standards are to emerge. The United States will be an important market, but not the primary consumer or financial market in the world. Fiscal mismanagement by the United States will exacerbate the decline of the United States, but it is demography that will result in a more global market. The world will be “better” if the world can evolve from unsustainable debt funded consumption for the benefit of one country to global markets which share the benefits of economic development.

If Moore’s law continues, then the cost of hardware will continue to decline and the ability to run a bank from a desert island a reality. The ability of software to take advantage of these hardware advantages may be limited. The advances in hardware and emergence of Utility computing will overcome much of the limitation. The result will be unpredented opportunity for entrepreneurs to create applications to global audiences in an increasingly service oriented world. Linux is likely to be best placed to take advantage of advances in hardware.

Skype made internet telephony popular. It added video functionality to Skype last year. It has now added remote desktop or application sharing. As the worlds most popular internet telephone software, this will have a significant impact on the number of people that work together over the internet. Could Skype make application sharing popular just like it did for internet telephony?

The electronic distribution of shareholder information will reduce costs and provide immediate delivery of information to shareholders. Electronic delivery may bypass established channels for information delivery and may accelerate disintermediation. However, the change is likely to be a universally positive for market efficiency with more direct communication between a company, its shareholders and advisers. It may also be possible that reduced transaction costs could lead to improved access to capital markets by smaller companies.

Hong Kong raised more capital in 2006 for the largest companies than any other market. In addition, it also offers small high growth companies a better opportunity for liqudity at significantly less cost than other markets. Hong Kong’s Growth Enterprise Market, a “Buyer’s Beware” market for informed investors, is specifically designed for these small growth companies. A company does not need to be incorporated in Hong Kong and “does not include any profit ‘track record’ requirement nor any obligation to forecast future profitability”. The listing fees are modest and comparable to many offshore stock exchanges. However, I suspect that the opportunity for liquidity may be greater in Hong Kong. I have previously highlighted the lack of liquidity in offshore exchanges, but perhaps the weight of capital in the world generally and Hong Kong specifically will boost liquidity in offshore exchanges. Ofcourse, any company that lists in Hong Kong would need Hong Kong or Chinese business to maximise appeal to local investors. I remain intrigued by the opportunity for online social networks to contribute to the stock exchanges and the equity market.

Recent deals confirm that the process of industry consolidation is occurring at a global level. The major players have interest in markets beyond those of Europe and the United States. Some of my recent articles have provided an analysis of market share and described some of the activity in different markets.

Striking a balance between consumer protection, compliance costs and maintaining an effective market to raise capital for companies is very difficult. The following two articles suggest that the balance is skewed heavily toward consumer protection to the detriment of companies. Companies are simply moving to new markets where capital is easier to raise and costs are lower. If the balance is not right, the migration of companies will result in lost jobs and lost tax revenue to other financial centres.

Markets of buyers and sellers will come “full circle”. Thousands of years ago, “transactions” between buyers and sellers were negotiated “under a tree” and face to face. As markets became larger and global, industry constructed proprietary and closed systems to match buyers and sellers. In an era of the internet, much of this infrastructure is redundant. A global internet displaces regional and proprietary communications systems. The internet will significantly impact many industries. We are likely to return to negotiating “under a digital tree”. The internet and the emerging “semantic” web will bring the people together in the global market place.

The key reasons that Europe and other regional economies have not developed a “Silicon valley” is not cultural and not lack of capital. There are enough entrepreneurs and the capital will mobilise. There needs to be predictable risk for involvement in early stage, greater transparency that reduce the costs of involvement and a significant reduction in the time/cost to find opportunities. Entrepreneurs and investors need to know who to call. The recipients of those calls need to be willing to get involved.

Is there a way to achieve transparency, without waiting for decades to pass and relationships to form in the conventional way? There must be a role for an online social network to assist each regional economy, company, advisers and investors with sincere early stage aspirations.

The Isle of Man is a world class financial centre. I recommend the Isle of Man Finance web site for more information. It is a very competitive offshore offering, but may have been less flexible and more expensive than other “offshore” jurisdictions. Amongst other requirements, an Isle of Man company had to have at least one resident director and a resident company secretary. This is about to change. The Isle of Man is about to introduce the “New Manx Vehicle” (”NMV”) company structure. The NMV has many of the attributes of the International Business Companies of the BVI and other offshore jurisdictions. With the NMV, the Isle of Man is a compelling offshore proposition (particularly for European E-Business). The opportunity to use “meeting rooms earmarked for use by Manx companies” in the Isle of Man’s London office is an innovative marketing tactic.

“The Semantic Web (or Web 3.0) promises to organize the world’s information in a dramatically more logical way than Google can ever achieve with their current engine design.” The lack of metadata around information and closed information systems ensure financial markets remain a highly profitable industry. In Web 2.0, the information could be organised into structured databases from a single location made available over the internet. Web 3.0 must still be organised, but intelligent distributed agents could answer your question - “Which corporate adviser should I use to list my Web 3.0 company in Bermuda?” and “What are my chances of getting liquidity?”. It will be very interesting to see what type of answers Web 3.0 gives us?

The United States also driving companies away from their home market. Sarbanes-Oxley Act, increased regulation and complexity have increased the cost of raising capital and the risk of non-compliance. Offshore centres are attracting companies away from the United States. “23 of the 24 firms recently looking to raise more than a billion dollars in capital chose to list overseas rather than in the U.S.”

“A true sea change is taking place in the capital markets industry worldwide. Driven by sociological, regulatory and technological developments, this wave will completely alter the face of the industry and the roles of current market participants over the next 10 years.”: Bearingpoint. Stock exchanges will move beyond order execution, to providing investment banking services and enhanced clearing and settlement. Smaller firms will follow Google’s IPO example and approach the public directly rather than through intermediaries.

The internet would appear to facilitate greater participation in the “listed company” market by the offshore stock exchanges. Offshore centres can list companies at a fraction of the cost of onshore exchanges. Onshore equity markets are expensive and can only be used by large companies. Does the current standard of compliance and regulation mean that small companies can not get capital for growth so that they become large? What does society gain from ensuring effective capital allocation to early stage companies? In the internet era, the offshore stock exchange may ultimately have a greater role.