Marcus Cake

Linux will become a viable alternative to the Microsoft Windows desktop software. Over the last few years, there have been many articles that Linux may reach a Tipping Point . The Tipping Point for Linux means it will move from being used by a niche group to being commonly used. I believe the Tipping point will occur in the next two years. Individuals will use Linux on the desktop. Any remaining inhibitors or features required by everyday users should be implemented in Linux in the next year. This includes support for more devices allowing synchronisation with mobile phones. Business will increasingly use Linux for mail and web servers and replace their existing Microsoft Exchange mail servers.

Independent of Linux, there may be other events which trigger the Tipping Point. This includes the release of the next version of Microsoft Windows, called Vista. Microsoft will start encouraging us to upgrade and may prompt us to assess value of the upgrade. People may also consider Linux at the same time. On what basis should we make a decision. Is it simply cost?

Cost

Microsoft charges license fees for each new version of its software - the operating systems and additional fees for the office applications. Linux is free - the operating system, office applications and over ten thousand other free applications.

The majority of computers in the world utilise Windows. Most people are familiar with Windows. Linux is unfamiliar to most and remains in the minds of many something that only the very technical could use. There are often great concerns about learning something new. Learning costs time and and money. For the majority of users, that just use email and surf the internet, Linux operates just like Windows and it won’t take long to set it up and get going. Some users may use a few more applications. This will require an individual analysis to see if each user can still do what they need to do.

Innovation

As time has passed, there are being more questions asked about Microsoft’s ability to be innovative and release it regularly for the benefit of users. The original release of the next version of Vista was intended for release back in 2004. It was going to include new and breakthrough technologies. Windows Vista will now not include the breakthrough technology advances and it will be more of a cosmetic finish. New features from Microsoft may only be available every few years and only for a price. With Vista, these new features are not innovations.

Innovation has become a key factor in the Linux versus Windows debate. Linux has tens of thousands of software applications. These are freely available from repositories immediately. The quality of these applications is equal to commercial equivalents in many cases. A repository is a place on the internet where you access the software. Each user can pick a stable release repository, or a bleeding edge repository. There is no fee for access. Open source applications are generally released every six months. The average open source developer is 40 years old and has atleast 10 years of software development experience. If a problem emerges, it can be fixed and released in the next version, or downloaded immediately in an online update.

Software for Linux may be more convenient to obtain than Windows software. Software can usually be found with an online search in the software install tool in Linux. Linux software is easier to install most of the time. However, software installation in Windows is superior because all Windows software involves downloading an executable, running the downloaded file and the program can be started from the “Start” menu. Linux is not that consistent or predictable across all applications. It is predictable for the most popular applications.

Stability

Linux, is based on the Unix. Unix is reponsible for running many major systems in the world. This includes banks, telecommunications companies and insurance companies. It has a heritage of security and high performance. Windows in contrast was originally designed to be as open as possible as a desktop computer. There is also anecdotal evidence that Windows does not crash or freeze as often.

Security

With such a long time between releases, Microsoft needs to release patches to fix problems or security issues. If it charges a fee for an upgrade, it can not provide major upgrades to existing systems without a fee. It does not have the option of just replacing the operating system.Most of the hackers in the world devote their time and effort to developing viruses and other hacks for windows.

According to anecdotal evidence, there are 120,000 viruses designed for Windows and approximately 500 for Linux. The hackers may prefer “Windows because it is the dominant operating system or anti-Microsoft sentiment. This may change. As Linux emerges on the desktop, hackers may devote more time to attacking Linux systems. Linux is considered more difficult to attack.

According to a Microsoft security official:

“businesses should consider investing in an automated process to wipe hard drives and reinstall operating systems as a practical way to recover from malware infestation. When you are dealing with rootkits and some advanced spyware programs, the only solution is to rebuild from scratch. In some cases, there really is no way to recover without nuking the systems from orbit,”

Open source principles are being applied to virus development. Advanced tools can be downloaded, modified and combined quickly. There has always been a perception that our Windows desktop could be secure. A patch would be delivered quickly if something was. The innovation cycle of hackers is speeding up. New approaches may mean that patches will no longer be effective. The core of the system must be replaced. The Linux innovation cycle provides stable replacements of the core at least every six months or immediately, if required). Microsoft will replace the core every few years.

Religion

Choices between Microsoft Windows and Linux are occasionally compromised by a preference for one or the other. Occasionally, this preference borders on religion. Advocates of one or the other can be blinded and cease to assess each product on its merits. Some users may be encouraged by friends to try Linux just for the sake of trying it. For most people, the compelling reason to change is driven by something real - a better way to do something, at less cost, greater convenience and in less time. Linux may reach such a tipping point and many users may change in the next two years.

Are we just stuck on Windows?

Windows dominates 90% of computer desktops. We are very familiar with Windows. Our colleagues use Windows. Linux is more than a viable alternative for people that just email, surf the internet and write the occasional document. Sophisticated users and professional people need almost everything to work. License fees to Microsoft are insignificant compared to losing days of time, or being unable to do something that could be done before. A few remaining hurdles are starting to disappear. Wireless networking and the management of network connections is becoming easy. Last week, an individual released a plug-in that allows Linux’s OpenOffice (the replacement to Microsoft Office) to save and read Microsoft Office files.

OpenOffice formats have been accepted as a Standard in Europe. Microsoft has responded by getting their Office document format accedited as a standard as well. But still ,the pain of any shift to a new computer is likely to be difficult. May will, understandably, choose to stay with the status quo. Perhaps, the pending release of Vista will encourage people to try a Linux Live DVD. A Live DVD will run Linux on a computer from the CD drive without makiing any changes to the hard drive. The Ubuntu Linux Live cd will even allow you install Linux to the hard drive from the CD.

Many will make the shift … there is plenty of help on the internet to get you through. I would recommend “Suse Linux for organisations and Ubuntu Linux for individuals. I recommend downloading Ubuntu, burning it to a CD and booting from this CD from your computer. This will allow you to confirm Linux works on your computer and use the software without making any changes to your computer.